Top-performing cards in the early Frozen Throne Arena meta

Top-performing cards in the early Frozen Throne Arena meta

Unlike Ranked, the Arena meta in Hearthstone typically doesn’t shift much during an expansion. People figure out which cards are good when they are released, and they are typically right on most of the evaluations. Through personal experience playing cards, a few cards will be reevaluated. Take Knights of the Frozen Throne for example. Upon the reveal of Bonemare, I think everyone knew it would be a top-3 Arena neutral for the set. The card will always be premium, probably until it gets rotated out of Standard.

The new Arena meta, or the so-called “Synergy Meta,” is a bit different, and we have seen upheavals from the previous power pyramid. I decided to look at the top cards from the new set for each class, and use that as a gauge to see how the class is doing.

Methodology

  • I went to hsreplay.net to look at Arena cards by deck winrate.
  • I sorted new cards to look at neutrals, and by-class.
  • I ranked each top-performing card by where they stand in the class card pool.

Top class card comparison

Gnash(62955).png

Gnash your teeth if you draft this, but don’t beat yourself up.

Druid

  1. Ultimate Infestation – 60.6% WR, #1 Druid card
  2. Malfurion the Pestilent – 60% WR, #2 Druid card
  3. Druid of the Swarm – 59.2% WR, #3 Druid card
  4. Fatespinner – 58.5% WR, #4 Druid card
  5. Webweave – 58.4%, t5 Druid card

If by some cruel twist, the main complaint of Ranked Hearthstone is also the best Druid class card for Arena. It is a new Arena development, as Druid was never top shelf in the format. The top Druid class cards all being new cards likely has something to do with the class’ rise in the ranks.

Play Dead(62891).png

The equilvalence of playing dead in arena.

Hunter

  1. Deathstalker Rexxar – 57.7% WR, #1 Hunter card
  2. Venomstrike Trap – 56.5% WR, #17 Hunter card
  3. Abominable Bowman – 55.7% WR, #31 Hunter card
  4. Corpse Widow – 55.7% WR, t31 Hunter card
  5. Professor Putricide – 55.5% WR, #34 Hunter card

Unlike other classes, Hunter doesn’t rely on card quality, rather playing the Aggro game to be faster than others. The new cards from this expansion weren’t too impressive relative to the Hunter class toolkit.

Glacial Mysteries(62869).png

Frankly a mystery why anyone would draft this.

Mage

  1. Frost Lich Jaina – 60.1% WR, #1 Mage card
  2. Sindragosa – 57.1% WR, #15 Mage card
  3. Coldwraith – 56.8% WR, #20 Mage card
  4. Ghastly Conjurer – 56.6% WR, #33 Mage card
  5. Breath of Sindragosa – 55.8% WR, #40 Mage card

How the mighty have fallen. The top two class cards for Mage are legendaries, but Frost Lich Jaina gets a decent boost (9.4% of all Arena Mages) from the synergy pick system. The Mage toolkit was lousy for the new set, with a couple of unplayable epic spells, and this helped bring the class down a bit. There were no “bomb spells.” Coldwraith is good, but everything else pales in comparison to the spells from Un’Goro and before.

Light's Sorrow(61833).png

This card is sad. Don’t draft it.

Paladin

  1. Uther of the Ebon Blade – 60.7% WR, #4 Paladin card
  2. Righteous Protector – 60% WR, #12 Paladin card
  3. Bolvar, Fireblood – 58.4% WR, #29 Paladin card
  4. Dark Conviction – 58.1% WR, #32 Paladin card
  5. Arrogant Crusader – 58% WR, #34 Paladin card

To show the quality of Paladin cards in Arena, Righteous Protector is just #12, and it is as good as it gets for a 1-drop. A lot of lackluster cards, but everything is overpowered to keep the class great. Note the reduction of Stonehill Defender, which makes it a must-pick draft rare.

Archbishop Benedictus(62856).png

This can be countered by blind drafting kappa.

Priest

  1. Shadowreaper Anduin – 59.4% WR, #1 Priest card
  2. Obsidian Statue – 55.4% WR, #20 Priest card
  3. Shadow Ascendant – 55.3% WR, #23 Priest card
  4. Embrace Darkness – 54.1% WR, #34 Priest card
  5. Spirit Lash – 54% WR, #35 Priest card

Seeing a trend here, yes the Death Knight heroes remain quite good. Obsidian Statue is a good card, but costing 9 likely has something to do it being just 20th best. Shadow Ascendant might be better in classes with more aggressive early game as well. Everything else is mediocre.

Leeching Poison(61821).png

A leech in your draft card quality.

Rogue

  1. Plague Scientist – 59.8% WR, #14 Rogue card
  2. Bone Baron – 59.7% WR, #16 Rogue card
  3. Shadowblade – 59.6% WR, #17 Rogue card
  4. Lilian Voss – 59.4% WR, #21 Rogue card
  5. Spectral Pillager – 58.4% WR, #36 Rogue card

It seems Death Knight Valeera is more of a Constructed build-around than Arena card. But, the Rogue got Plague Scientist, Bone Baron and Shadowblade, all decent cards to keep the class afloat. The class card kit is still spectacular, and the new cards don’t particularly hurt the class standing.

Moorabi(62845).png

Moorabi? More like, uh, Moo-don’t-draft-this.

Shaman

  1. Thrall, Deathseer – 54.2% WR, #17 Shaman card
  2. Brrrloc – 53.7% WR, #25 Shaman card
  3. Avalanche – 53.3% WR, #31 Shaman card
  4. Voodoo Hexxer – 52.8% WR, #41 Shaman card
  5. Snowfury Giant – 51.9% WR, #48 Shaman card

Shaman was definitely in the lower third in Un’Goro, and the new freeze class identity shift decelerated any Arena movement it had. I mean, the top class common/rare is Brrrloc, with a low winrate. Thrall, Deathseer seems solid in Constructed, where it might be easier to hold the board than in Ranked. The hero does nothing on an empty board. I expected Voodoo Hexxer to be one of the better cards, but that doesn’t appear to be the case right now. If the synergy pick is working correctly, Thrall, Deathseer should be offered 2x higher, like Frost Lich Jaina.

Howlfiend(62894).png

How to mill your deck in arena without clearing the board.

Warlock

  1. Bloodreaver Gul’dan – 59.9% WR, #1 Warlock card
  2. Despicable Dreadlord – 59.5% WR, #3 Warlock card
  3. Defile – 57.5% WR, #17 Warlock card
  4. Drain Soul – 56.5% WR, #30 Warlock card
  5. Gnomeferatu – 56.4% WR, #32 Warlock card

Arena Warlock was always fun in my book, and now is the time to reap. Some new ridiculous toys were added to the toolkit, and Bloodreaver Gul’dan (10.2%!) is seeing an offering bonus thanks to the synergy picks. Despicable Dreadlord is a stud. Defile will give humanities majors fits, but efficient board clear. The class has moved up a good deal.

Dead Man's Hand(62842).png

Literally a dead man or woman in arena because you drafted this.

Warrior

  1. Scourgelord Garrosh – 56.8% WR, #1 Warrior card
  2. Blood Razor – 52.1% WR, #12 Warrior card
  3. Forge of Souls – 52% WR, #13 Warrior card
  4. Mountainfire Armor – 51.3% WR, #16 Warrior card
  5. Val’kyr Soulclaimer – 49.3% WR, #37 Warrior card

The Arena doghouse class is still there. A lot of the cards had the “Whirlwind theme” which is more of a Constructed build around, than being good for Arena. Ravaging Ghoul is good since it fits being a 3-drop. Overcosted 5’s and 4’s aren’t that good. Maybe a fun challenge for good Arena players.

Wretched Tiller(62946).png
Funny voicelines but wretched pick.

Neutrals

  1. The Lich King – 59.9% WR
  2. Bonemare – 59.3% WR
  3. Keening Banshee – 58.8% WR
  4. Hyldnir Frostrider – 58.3% WR
  5. Deathspeaker – 57.9% WR

The Lich King is just OP and should be drafted over almost every legendary. You can make an exception for Death Knight heroes maybe, and a few good ones. The neutrals and rares on this list all are over-stated, or buff other minions to help preserve the board.

There you have it. Just by looking at class card rankings, you can estimate where the class is in the new Arena meta. Look forward to checking more data and numbers as the Arena meta keeps on moving.

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Updated Evolve/Thrall, Deathseer Chart for Knights of the Frozen Throne

Updated Evolve/Thrall, Deathseer Chart for Knights of the Frozen Throne

A long time ago, I got really excited by Master of Evolution and decided to look at the effect of stat changes brought on by the new Evolve mechanic. I’ve only opened 1 legendary in 40 packs of Knights of the Frozen Throne so far (boo), but got the Hero Shaman card for completing the prologue, Thrall Deathseer. By running the updated Evolve Shaman for ranked play, I suddenly got excited about Master of Evolution again. So, I decided to update the Evolve chart.

Methodology

  • I filtered all the minions that are currently playable in Standard, including the cards from this expansion.
  • All playable minions are grouped by mana cost and an average was taken from attack and health.
  • The transformed mana cost is either +1 or +2. I found the difference between the average attack and health by graduation in mana cost.
  • I look at percentages of the evolved minion having an ability. The abilities I looked at were Taunt, Charge, Spell Damage, Lifesteal, Divine Shield, and End Turn Effect.
  • I have a category called “Disaster.” This would be an evolved minion with something that could be really bad, causing you to lose your whole board or the game. The identified disaster evolves include Doomsayer, Ticking Abomination, Rattling Rascal, Bomb Squad and Anomalous.
  • For the 1-mana cost slot in original minion, I included the 4 basic Shaman totem tokens. I figured these would be the most common evolve targets on the board in a Shaman game.
  • While there are many more tokens that could be included in “original minion”, they were left out because there were too many.
  • There are caveats to abilities. Hogger was counted as a Taunt minion in the 6-slot, even though no Gnoll will be made on a full board. I did not include Twilight Elder as an end of turn ability in the 3-slot. I did not include Ethereal Arcanist as an end of turn ability in the 4-slot.

1-mana Evolve chart (Evolve, Devolve, Master of Evolution, Thrall hero power)

KFT Evolve Chart 1

2-mana Evolve chart (Thrall hero battlecry)

KFT Evolve Chart 2

Takeaways

  • 2-mana Evolve from Thrall is really good, probably what makes the hero card so impactful on Turn 5.
  • 4 mana to 5 mana is the best intermediate cost evolution for stats. 6 to 7 and 7 to 8 are really good as well.
  • The ability to get Taunt goes up a good degree in the middle to late mana costs.
  • 8 mana seems to be where all the big effect cards are. A 1/19 for Anomalous though.
  • Once the minions get too big, they just become Snowfury Giant or Sea Giant. Probably shouldn’t evolve them by then, unless for healing purposes.

 

 

All the Minion Stats You Need to Know After Mean Streets of Gadgetzan

All the Minion Stats You Need to Know After Mean Streets of Gadgetzan

I’m a sucker for numbers, as stats can allow one to make a better decision in most avenues of life. Thus, when the remaining Mean Streets of Gadgetzan (MSG) cards were released today, I was able to update my master spreadsheet of cards. Given the ample amount of randomness in the game, I thought it would be a good idea to update various numbers on Hearthstone minions, given the new cards are officially part of the Standard rotation.

Objectives

  • Learn about how the average cost, attack, and health of Hearthstone minions change when MSG is released.
  • Revisit the “evolution table,” which shows minion stat attack/health changes when moving up and down a mana cost. This is relevant given Evolve, Master of Evolution, and Devolve are standard cards.
  • Learn what the average drops are from portals and other special summons.
  • Look at other random stats.

Overall Minion Averages After MSG

Mode Cost Attack Health
Standard 4.19 3.5 4.04
MSG Std 4.17 3.47 4.02
Wild 4.14 3.47 4.05

The introduction of MSG only decreased the average minion cost, attack, and health by a small amount.

Set Cost Attack Health
Evergreen 3.99 3.28 3.85
Naxx 3.4 2.6 4.28
GvG 4.15 3.72 4.18
BRM 4.96 4.3 4.7
TGT 4.26 3.83 4.09
LoE 3.77 3.24 3.97
WotoG 4.64 3.77 4.43
Kara 3.82 2.94 3.59
MSG 4.08 3.31 3.89

Overall, the average minion set of MSG averages 4 and is close to a 3.5/4 statline. This isn’t hard to believe, given the number of anti-tempo minions around in this set with the Grimy Goons and Jade Lotus minions. With the dropout of Blackrock Mountain, Old Gods will represent the beefiest set of minions. MSG minions are overall on the small side.

Evolve/Devolve Table (Standard)

Org Cost Org Attack Org Health Trs Cost Trs Attack Trs Health ∆ Attack ∆ Health % Taunt % Charge
0 1.00 1.00 1 1.29 1.58 0.29 0.58 6.45% 1.61%
1 1.23 1.64 2 2.02 2.46 0.79 0.82 6.90% 1.15%
2 2.02 2.46 3 2.60 3.08 0.58 0.62 6.96% 1.74%
3 2.60 3.08 4 3.22 4.06 0.62 0.98 7.48% 1.87%
4 3.22 4.06 5 4.04 4.77 0.82 0.71 11.11% 3.70%
5 4.04 4.77 6 4.78 5.07 0.74 0.30 11.94% 2.99%
6 4.78 5.07 7 5.70 5.88 0.92 0.81 18.18% 0.00%
7 5.70 5.88 8 6.69 7.56 0.99 1.68 18.75% 12.50%
8 6.69 7.56 9 6.71 8.14 0.02 0.58 9.52% 9.52%
9 6.71 8.14 10 8.36 8.36 1.65 0.22 0.00% 0.00%
10 8.36 8.36 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

This table shows how the average statline of minions changes across mana cost. This is useful for determining stat changes from cards like Evolve, Devolve and Master of Evolution. The average attack and health numbers are across all Standard Play minions, with the 4 basic Shaman totems added to the 1-mana pool. The largest transformation benefit occurs from a 7-mana minion to an 8-mana minion. Taunt has a decent change of hitting from 6 to 7 and 7 to 8. The best chance to get Charge minions are from 7 to 8. The transformed minion stat values are also valuable for determining what minions you get out of various portals. For example, the average Firelands Portal summon will create a 4/5 minion on average.

Evolve/Devolve Table (Arena)

Org Cost Org Attack Org Health Trs Cost Trs Attack Trs Health ∆ Attack ∆ Health % Taunt % Charge
0 0.67 1.33 1 1.30 1.61 0.63 0.28 5.71% 1.43%
1 1.22 1.65 2 1.96 2.44 0.74 0.79 7.83% 1.74%
2 1.97 2.41 3 2.58 3.16 0.61 0.75 8.15% 2.22%
3 2.58 3.17 4 3.21 4.09 0.63 0.92 7.03% 2.34%
4 3.21 4.08 5 4.11 4.75 0.90 0.67 10.28% 2.80%
5 4.10 4.75 6 4.88 5.26 0.78 0.51 10.13% 2.53%
6 4.78 5.18 7 5.90 6.08 1.12 0.90 15.38% 0.00%
7 5.95 6.08 8 6.55 7.60 0.60 1.52 15.00% 10.00%
8 6.53 7.53 9 6.91 8.04 0.38 0.51 8.70% 8.70%
9 6.91 8.04 10 8.36 8.36 1.45 0.32 0.00% 0.00%
10 8.60 8.60 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

This table is the same as the table before this, but deals with the arena. The original minion includes the Wild set of minions, excluding all undraftable cards, like C’Thun cards and balanced out cards. The transformed minion includes any minion from the Wild set, as those cards can all appear in the arena through a summon.

Best/Worst Outcomes

Mana Cost Best Outcome Worst Outcome
1 Injured Kvaldir (2/4) Elven Archer (1/1)
2 Dirty Rat (2/6/taunt), Milhouse Manastorm (4/4) Novice Engineer (1/1)
3 Injured Blademaster (4/7) Blubber Baron (1/1)
4 A 4 mana 7/7 Faceless Shambler (1/1/taunt)
5 Earth Elemental (7/8/taunt), Leeroy Jenkins (6/2/charge), Doomguard (5/7/charge) Bomb Squad (2/2)
6 Savannah Highmane (6/5/DR), Sylvanas (5/5/DR), Illidan (7/5/effect) Big Time Racketeer (1/1)
7 Archmage Antonidas (5/7/effect), Bog Creeper (6/8/taunt) Acidmaw (4/2)
8 Tirion Fordring (6/6/taunt/effect), Ragnaros (8/8/dmg) Boogeymonster (6/7)
9 Ysera (4/12/effect) Blade of C’Thun (4/4), Majordomo (9/7/bad effect)
10 Deathwing (12/12) N’Zoth (5/7)

Here is a rough table of the best and worst outcomes. While there is a concern than evolving a 5 into a 6 or devolving a 7 to a 6 will make a 1/1 Big-Time Racketeer, it is also an equal chance for a Savannah Highmane or Sylvanas.

Average Demon

Cost Attack Health
Standard Demon 4.04 3.7 4.96
Wild Demon 4.19 3.78 4.93

Ever since the banishment of Mal’Ganis to Wild Play, demons have been mostly ignored in Hearthstone class design. MSG brings about some new demon support with an interesting card in Kabal Trafficker, which adds a random demon each turn. Krul the Unshackled is another big interesting demon in the new set.

Average Murloc

Cost Attack Health
Standard Murloc 2.33 1.94 2.06
Wild Murloc 2.48 2 2.29

4 new Murlocs are in this new set, and most interesting one is Finja. These minion averages only apply for the Murloc Knight Inspires, and overall the new Murlocs just further dilute the best Murloc summons of Murloc Knight and Murloc Warleader.

Average Beast

Class Cost Attack Health
Hunter 3.64 3.16 3.53
Druid 3.43 3.25 3.4
Warrior 3.37 3.09 3.4
Rogue 3.31 3.06 3.31
All Other Classes 3.38 3.09 3.38

Tomb Spider is one of the top 3 arena commons picked on average, so I took a look at what the average beast stats are across classes. Here, you’re looking for a useful effect over raw stats, but interesting that the Hunter beasts are actually heavier than Druid ones.

Average Legendary

Cost Attack Health
Pre-MSG Std 6.43 5.21 5.83
MSG Std 6.2 4.95 5.55

Finally, this table shows the average stats for legendary minions in the standard pool before MSG and after MSG. As you can see, the average legendary minion is cheaper and has a bit less attack and health after the release. This confirms my eye test of noticing smaller legendaries made in this set, and the changing Team 5 philosophy of making less impactful neutral legendaries.

One Year of Mana

One year ago, I decided to resurrect my blogging hobby that had gone on and off for years. Unlike previous boring personal blogs, I decided to solely focus the blog on the game Hearthstone. And here we are.

All-time stats

blogyear.PNG

My overall stats are funny. I guess I blogged fairly regularly every few days through the year. I had just over 8,400 views and 6,950 visitors. I had a few days of high-view outliers, where my blog was advertised on Hearthstone Reddit, and my site traffic was on fire.

Top 10 posts

Post Views
Master of Evolution – A Bright Future 3238
Home page / Archives 1535
Hearthstone vs Magic Duels 706
Pick Your Poison: The Dilemma of 3 Bad Arena Choices 244
Grinding Tools 193
On the HearthArena Fallout 151
My Top 10 Cards from Whispers of the Old Gods 121
Enter the Shadows: Diablo 3 Patch 2.4 115
Tentacles for Arms, Throwing Everyone for a Loop 108
The Most Annoying Minions in Hearthstone 99
Miraculous Revival -What’s Next for Miracle Rogue? 96

As alluded above, most of my views came from a few days. My pre-Old Gods release post of Master of Evolution stats in transforming minions was prefaced by a post I put on Hearthstone Reddit. It became a front page post, and the rest is history. My next highest posts were put on Reddit by strangers. “Hearthstone vs Magic Duels” is a post that seems to keep giving, and is useful in introducing people to both games. “Pick Your Poison” was a post I really enjoyed writing, about drafting bad arena cards. “Grinding Tools” is an admittedly lousy post that just describes what decks I played for a season. The post about ADWCTA and Merps leaving HearthArena was a bit of Hearthstone drama that will help explain that incident. The Old Gods Top 10 list was a bit generic, but very enjoyable and though-provoking to create. My sole post on Diablo III was also one of my highest-viewed posts. Other posts rounding out the top 10 include a commentary on the horrible Tentacles for Arms, a list of annoying Hearthstone minions, and theorycrafting Miracle Rogue after Dog’s usage of Tomb Pillager.

Most popular countries

world map.PNG

Country Views
United States 3648
Canada 491
United Kingdom 474
Germany 436
Australia 304
Brazil 261
France 204
Singapore 197
Netherlands 169
Sweden 147

Not surprisingly most of my viewers come from the United States. Being a popular game on the EU servers, a lot of European or “Western” countries show up as top views. Brazil and Singapore have some reach as being slightly different countries, but show the Hearthstone passion in those countries. The blog has reached computers through the world, including the Faroe Islands, Seychelles, Curacao, and even a country called “European Union!”

Top referrers

Referrer Times
Reddit 2614
Google 2411
WordPress 199
Twitter 147
Bing 123
Google Images 98
Yahoo 50
DuckDuckGo 41

Not surprisingly, Reddit was the top source of referrals to my page, given the front page advert. A slew of search engines and social media outlets WordPress and Twitter chipped in. I even got a view from someone in a cave using Dogpile.

The future

I will keep up the blog so as long as I am obsessed with and keep playing Hearthstone. It has allowed me a great outlet to vent all my Hearthstone-related thoughts. Thanks everyone for reading!

August 2016 Season EU Plays with Screenshots

August 2016 featured the staggered release of One Night in Karazhan. The stale meta finally flipped over and we are in the era of new deck creation till the next expansion in a few months.

aug2016arena.PNG

 

My arena play was fairly mediocre, running at 62% and 4.5 wins per average. I did get a 12-1 run for the first time, though were are too many 1-3 win runs for my liking.

aug2016ranked

The lackluster arenas forced me to play more Ranked than average. I actually began things playing Mech Rogue in Wild, before I came to my senses. Overall, I had a 53% in Ranked, getting to Rank 6. Interestingly, I played every class at least once!

Below is an assortment of screenshots I took throughout the month. Happy Hearthstoning!

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

 

 

Over-stat/Under-stat: A Look at Stat Points and Abilities

As an Arena main, I can say I have a wider palette of cards played than a person who plays Constructed all the time. The nature of an Arena draft forces me to play bad cards commonly and try to make things work with uncompatible cards. Recently, I had good success with a draft where I had Booty Bay Bodyguard. Of course, Booty Bay Bodyguard is known as a victim of power creep, when Evil Heckler came aboard as 1 mana cheaper. There is literally no advantage Booty Bay Bodyguard has. That got me thinking about stat points, and what they really tell about card value.

Vanilla minions as the baseline

420px-Chillwind_Yeti_(art) - vanilla.jpg
I’m not really sure why I made this.

At the bare bones, every minion consists of mana cost, attack, and health. Mana costs 0-10 (giants aside), attack goes from 0-infinity, and health has to be at least 1. If you think about vanilla minions, ones that have no card text in their assigned box, these guys have to have the right number of stat points to be worth anything at all. They must have the right amount of attack + health to be worth playing.

The easiest vanilla minions that come to mind are Chillwind Yeti and River Crocolisk. Yeti is a 4 mana 4/5, while River Croc is a 2 mana 2/3. Sum it up, and you see that a 4 mana card should have 9 attack + health, and a 2 mana card should have 5 attack + health. GvG brought the 3 mana benchmark in Spider Tank, and TGT brought the 5 mana benchmark in Pit Fighter. With more and more vanilla cards released, we get a sense of how many stat points a minion should conceivably have at the assigned mana cost.

Mana Minion Attack Health Stat Points
0 Wisp 1 1 2
1 Murloc Raider 2 1 3
2 River Crocolisk 2 3 5
3 Spider Tank 3 4 7
4 Chillwind Yeti 4 5 9
5 Pit Fighter 5 6 11
6 Boulderfist Ogre 6 7 13
7 War Golem 7 7 14
8 Eldritch Horror 6 10 16
9 N/A 18
10 Faceless Behemoth 10 10 20

There are a few hiccups to this table to prevent it from being parallel. Murloc Raider is the only vanilla 1-drop, but many 1-drops have a 2/1 distribution with an additional ability, making Murloc Raider substandard. The one drop should have 3 stat points + an ability. There is also no vanilla 9-drop. Judging from stat points, the first vanilla 9-drop should have something between 17-19 stat points, I put it at 18 as an assumption. The stat points typically jump by 2’s for each mana increase, with an exception from 6 to 7, as War Golem represents a slight dampening.

Some maths

I have a spreadsheet of all the cards, which I use to do math sometimes. Interested in the “real cost” of abilities, I added up the stat points of all the minions and subtracted their value from the baseline numbers above. For example, a 2 mana 2/2 Kobold Geomancer would be 4 – 5, giving a -1 value. This means that Kobold Geomancer is 1 stat point off the baseline value of 5, meaning the spellpower was worth 1 stat point. I called this value “differential.”

differential.PNG

From the Stata output, I got 594 minions (excluding Molten Giant, Mountain Giant, Clockwork Giant) and the average differential on a minion is -1.48, with a 1.97 standard deviation. Using the crude 68-95-99.7 rule, I tried to figure out which cards were significantly under-stated and which were significantly over-stated. Basically, under-stated cards were -6 and below, while over-stated cards were +3 and above, using this definition.

Anyone still awake?

Significantly under-stated

Hearthstone Screenshot 02-28-16 01.00.29.png
Under-stated usually means great effects.
  • Blade of C’Thun (-10)
    • 10 stat points down, Blade brings a free Assassinate ability and powers up C’Thun. So a 5 mana refund seems to be worth the -10.
  • Al’Akir the Windlord (-8)
    • Al’Akir is known for stuffing up the card text, with Windfury, Charge, Divine Shield, Taunt. I’m going to get more into detail about the respective costs of these abilities later, but let’s just say they are all worth the -8.
  • Acidmaw (-8)
    • For those confused, Acidmaw is the 7 mana 4/2 that gives every minion poison. While you can setup sexy combos to clear boards, this is likely not worth the -8, given Acidmaw will likely die the next turn.
  • Aviana (-8)
    • Aviana has a really strong ability to make minions cost 1. So you can conceivably play a 10 mana thumper the same turn. That seems to be worth the -8.
  • C’Thun (-8)
    • C’Thun really isn’t a 6/6, so he gets a mulligan here.
  • Corrupted Seer (-8)
    • Corrupted Seer is essentially a River Croc + Consecration, so that is just worth the 6 mana and the -8.
  • N’Zoth the Corruptor (-8)
    • N’Zoth has a really strong ability, so bringing back a 4/4 deathrattle will refund the -8.
  • Yogg-Saron, Hope’s End (-8)
    • Another under-stated Old God, who will get a mulligan given the chaotic ability. Yogg-Saron also will likely kill himself, so it doesn’t really matter. Maybe being a 5/7 would be better?
  • Argent Commander (-7)
    • Argent Commander is considered a premium card in the Arena, and has had it’s share in the Constructed meta back in the day. The -7 under-stat might actually be a fair value, as Charge and Divine Shield scale up, being more useful for things with more attack. I’ll look more at this later.
  • Dreadsteed (-7)
    • Dedicated Dreadsteed decks could be dangerous at the right hands, but the -7 under-stat is indicative as to why this card never was effective.
  • Faceless Shambler (-7)
    • Mulligan here, as Faceless Shambler will almost always be better than it’s 1/1 copy form.
  • Twilight Summoner (-7)
    • Another mulligan, given it is essentially 6/6 worth of stats, actually over-stated compared to the average 4-drop.
  • Reckless Rocketeer (-6)
    • Is a 5-attack charge worth 6 points under-stated? Probably not.
  • Starving Buzzard (-6)
    • This card actually gained +1/+1 when it got nerfed to oblivion, but being 6 points less than your normal 5-drop doesn’t let it survive long on the board.
  • Anub’arak (-6)
    • Anub’arak will automatically give you a 4/4 on deathrattle, with continuous effect. So that is 8 points of stats, meaning this -6 under-stat doesn’t mean anything.

Significantly over-stated

Hearthstone Screenshot 02-23-16 00.34.09.png
Over-stated minions are best when you get them without battlecry.
  • Flamewreathed Faceless (+5)
    • 4 mana 7/7 jokes aside, the Overload 2 actually makes it a 6-cost card, meaning it is just a +1 over-stat relative to 6-drops.
  • Fel Reaver (+5)
    • Fel Reaver brings +5 thump for a significant and costly effect. Use at your own caution in the Arena!
  • Anima Golem (+5)
    • Another rather strong card that didn’t make it due to unreliable need to keep other minions living.
  • Deathwing (+4)
    • As a 10-mana 12/12, Deathwing is 4 points over-stated compared to the vanilla Faceless Behemoth. The cost of course is nuking everything and your hand.
  • Deathwing, Dragonlord (+4)
    • This version of Deathwing has the same stat distribution, but has the added bonus of dumping dragons onto the board. Pretty solid value for a card that is over-stated.
  • Injured Blademaster (+4)
    • He loses 4 life on battlecry, so this is a mulligan.
  • Earth Elemental (+4)
    • Another wonky result due to Overload. So, it actually costs 8 mana, meaning it is 1 point under-stated for 8 mana, with taunt.
  • Ancient Watcher (+4)
    • Can’t attack, so a dealbreaker.
  • Injured Kvaldir (+3)
    • Like Blademaster, the Kvaldir immediately gives the points back on battlecry. That is what made the J4CKIECHAN Hunter pretty solid.
  • Deathlord (+3)
    • Deathlord is prided for his big 8 health, but an uneven distribution, and bad deathrattle negate the gains.
  • The Beast (+3)
    • The Beast gives your opponent a 6-stated minion on deathrattle, so this +3 isn’t much to compensate for that.
  • Millhouse Manastorm (+3)
    • Being up 3 points on the average 2-drop isn’t worth unleashing Miracle Rogue or Freeze Mage wet dreams..
  • King Mukla (+3)
    • Mukla gives the opponent 4 stat points in bananas, so it balances out.

Point values of abilities

A Note on Class Cards

  • You may have heard that class cards are better than neutral cards.
  • The reason class cards are better than neutral cards, is because they are mostly cost-effective, they don’t sacrifice as many stat points for abilities that neutrals typically do.

Spell Damage

  • Spell damage mostly costs 1 stat point. Kobold Geomancer (2/2), Ogre Magi (4/4) and Frigid Snobold (2/6) all cost 1.
  • Azure Drake is pretty good, as it has essentially free spell damage.
  • Malygos is only 2 points under-stated as a 9-drop, but has 5 spell damage.
  • Some laughably bad cards pay a lot for spell damage. Evolved Kobold is 5 points under-stated for 2 spell damage.

Stealth

  • Stealth is usually free. Worgen Infiltrator (2/1), Gilblin Stalker (2/3), Ravenholdt Assassin (7/5) are all actually not over nor understated cards.
  • Stranglehorn Tiger (5/5) is 1 point under-stated, possibly because the 5/5 distribution is superior. Jungle Panther (4/2) is also under-stated, possibly because it can better trade up with a 4-drop.

Taunt

  • Taunts are typically worth -1. Sen’jin Shieldmasta (3/5), Ironfur Grizzly (3/3), and Frostwolf Grunt (2/2) to name a few. Taunts being -1 is fairly consistent.
  • The more subpar taunts are worth -2 (Silverback Patriarch, Lord of the Arena), while premium taunts are not understated at all (Bog Creeper!)

Divine Shield

  • Divine Shield appears to cost more depending on the attack of the minion. 1-attack minions like Argent Squire and Annoy-o-Tron have a Divine Shield under-stat cost of 1. Silent Knight and Argent Horserider appear to have a shield that under-stats them by 2. Scarlet Crusader, Silvermoon Guardian, and Psych-o-Tron, all 3-attack minions seem to have a shield that under-stats them by 3.
  • Sunwalker and Argent Commander appear to be cards that have 4-attack, but have Divine Shields that cost 3 stat points.

Charge

  • Charge is similar to Divine Shield, in that the cost appears to scale with the attack of the minion. Stonetusk Boar is off 1 point and has 1 attack. Bluegill Warrior  and Stormwind Knight are off 2 points and have 2 attack. Wolfrider is off 3 points and has 3 attack. Argent Commander, being a -7, appears to have a 4-cost charge, and 3-cost shield. Argent Horserider, being a -4, appears to have a 2-cost charge, and 2-cost shield.
  • Charge gets a little wonky with bigger attack. King Krush is under-stated just 2, but is 8 attack at 9 mana. Reckless Rocketeer is under-stated 6, but is only 5 attack.

Windfury

  • Windfury seems to double in under-stating across each tier. Tier 1 is Young Dragonhawk, and under-stated 1. Tier 2 is Flying Machine and Thrallmar Farseer, and under-stated 2. Tier 3 is Windfury Harpy and Grotesque Dragonhawk, and under-stated 4.
  • It is notable that all these cards are horrible, so the real cost of Windfury is hard to determine.

Drawing cards

  • The battlecry ability to draw a card appears to under-stat minions by 3 points. Novice Engineer, Gnomish Inventor, and Azure Drake seem to follow this. Jeweled Scarab even does so for a 3-cost card.
  • Deathrattle draws seem to under-stat a minion by 2 points. Loot Hoarder seems to follow this.

Controlled damage

  • Controlled damage costs a lot. The two dwarf gunmen, Ironforge Rifleman and Stormpike Commando are under-stated by 3 and 5 points to their respective vanilla minions. Disciple of C’Thun is under-stated by 4, while doing 2 damage.
  • This high cost of controlled damage shows why SI:7 Agent is in every single Rogue deck. It is just under-stated by 1, while doing 2 damage. Of course it is a class card, and requires a combo. Fire Elemental is a similarly elite card, given it is under-stated by 2, while doing 3 damage. North Sea Kraken follows this has the best Arena card of TGT, under-stated by just 2, while dealing 4 damage.

Conditional effects

  • A majority of minions have conditional effects, meaning that their ability doesn’t always activate. Rumbling Elemental is such a minion, being under-stated just 1, but requiring battlecry minions to deal damage.
  • A good deal of minions meet the vanilla statline for their mana cost, and have conditional effects. Mechwarper, being a 2/3 with mech cost reduction, is such a card.
  • Inspire minions will usually fall in here, with cards like Silver Hand Regent being a -1, and Kodorider being a -5.
Hearthstone Screenshot 01-25-16 00.20.00.png
Me smash

Wrapping things up

While Arena drafting tools exist to help you figure out how valuable a card is, it is good to know how valuable a card is just by looking at it. Starting with comparisons to vanilla minions, one can determine how valuable cards, and ultimately effects, are. Some things to remember:

  • The best cards will be completely properly stated and have good additional effect. Or they are just a shade under-stated and have a great effect.
  • Class cards are better than neutrals. They will more likely be properly stated and have an effect.
  • Divine Shield and Charge scale up depending on card attack.
  • Taunt usually costs 1 stat point.
  • Controlled damage is great when you can get it, and you get high value out of cards that are decently stated.